This Delphi survey ran during March and April 2016 and regarded major current market and societal trends and their effect on Public Transport over European Cities. The results will be presented at the 3rd Conference on Sustainable Urban Mobility.
During March and April 2016, CIPTEC coordinator AUTh commissioned a Delphi survey about major current market and societal trends and their effect on Public Transport over European Cities. The objective of this survey was to validate the findings of “D1.1. Report on major market trends, the effect of societal trends on market, and their influence on public transport”.
Delphi is a forecasting method that elicits experts’ opinion about a subject. It aims to reveal underlying trends by producing consensus among the experts of a panel. Delphi exercises have been often used in policy making regarding highly controversial and uncertain topics that are dependent on future developments. The results are used to guide policy makers and allow the development of more effective and responsive policies.
The conducted survey examined how globally observed market and societal trends will affect the demand for Public Transport services over the next 10 years in European cities. The researchers found that the most important trends, that are expected both to increase significantly in themselves and yield high demand for public transport services within the forthcoming decade are ‘Innovative and affordable technologies’, ‘Sustainable lifestyles’, ‘Population ageing’, and ‘Shared Economy, Individual Empowerment and Social innovation’. There are several additional trends, however, which are also important and will need to be taken into account. The integrated results will be presented at the 3rd Conference on Sustainable Urban Mobility – 3rd CSUM in Volos, Greece on 26 – 27 May 2016. The theme of this year’s Conference is “Anthropocentric approach in urban mobility planning”.
Overall, the results offer valuable insights into Public Transport Futures and broaden the discussion on this under-studied topic.